From Colombo to Dhaka: Student Protests Shaking South Asia’s Stability

Sanjoy Kumar Barua

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, who secured a fourth consecutive term in January, was forced to flee the country earlier this month as political unrest erupted, rendering her position increasingly untenable.

The immediate catalyst for the protests that precipitated Hasina’s departure was a contentious issue concerning public sector job quotas for the families of war veterans.

However, the turbulence in Bangladesh is far from an isolated political episode.

It speaks to a deeper, more widespread set of challenges facing not only Bangladesh but also other nations in South Asia and the Global South, signaling a potentially destabilizing regional trend.

The developments in Bangladesh closely mirror the crisis moments seen in neighboring South Asian nations.

Just two years ago, Sri Lanka found itself at the epicenter of a profound political and economic crisis, with mass protests forcing then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.

The images of protesters storming the Prime Minister’s residence in Dhaka echo those seen in Colombo in 2022, when demonstrators breached both the presidential palace and the Prime Minister’s residence.

This phenomenon of mass unrest against incumbent governments is not limited to Sri Lanka or Bangladesh.

In 2023, Pakistan experienced its own bout of intense anti-government protests, notably when demonstrators attacked military installations and the residence of a corps commander, following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan after his ousting from office.

At the heart of these crises is a shared, underlying cause: economic distress. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are all grappling with the harsh consequences of International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts.

Pakistan, a country that has been embroiled in financial turmoil for decades, recently secured its 24th IMF bailout, setting a world record.

Sri Lanka, still reeling from the effects of its 2022 sovereign default—the largest in the country’s history—remains on the road to recovery, but the process is slow, painful, and fraught with challenges.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh finds itself in the midst of a $4.7 billion IMF bailout agreement, with significant reforms and austerity measures looming on the horizon.

While these countries’ economic struggles are largely the result of domestic mismanagement and political instability, external factors also play a critical role.

Western analysts, in particular, have placed significant emphasis on China’s growing economic footprint in South Asia and the broader Global South.

China’s economic practices, which often rely on opaque lending mechanisms and what has been dubbed “debt-trap diplomacy,” have led to rising concerns about the long-term financial sovereignty of countries caught in its orbit.

China now holds a commanding share of external debt in several South Asian nations: over two-thirds of Pakistan’s bilateral external debt is owed to China, while Beijing accounts for more than 60% of the Maldives’ foreign debt, over 50% of Sri Lanka’s, and approximately a quarter of Bangladesh’s.

One of the most striking examples of China’s financial influence is Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port project.

Originally built with Chinese loans, the project became the focal point of the “debt-trap” narrative after Sri Lanka was forced to lease the port to China for 99 years as part of a debt restructuring agreement.

This deal, widely viewed as emblematic of China’s growing economic leverage in the region, has raised alarms over the broader implications of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has seen China extend massive infrastructure loans to countries across the Global South.

The narrative of debt-trap diplomacy is not without its critics.

Some argue that these loans are merely a part of the normal business of international finance, with countries voluntarily entering into these agreements in exchange for much-needed infrastructure development.

However, the increasing frequency of debt defaults and the political instability that accompanies them suggest that this economic model is coming under intense scrutiny.

In Bangladesh, for example, while the country’s debt to China is comparatively smaller, it is still significant enough to raise concerns about its long-term fiscal sustainability.

The growing debt burdens of these countries, coupled with the internal pressures of governance, have created a volatile mix of economic fragility and political instability.

In Bangladesh, Hasina’s flight from power underscores a broader regional crisis of governance.

The political volatility in these nations is exacerbated by growing public discontent, fueled by unemployment, inflation, and the burden of austerity measures imposed as part of IMF agreements.

The typical response to such distress—political upheaval, social unrest, and, in some cases, the ousting of long-standing political leaders—has become a recurring pattern across the region.

Furthermore, these crises are not just confined to the domestic realm; they are part of a larger global power struggle.

The IMF bailouts, alongside China’s financial involvement, have placed these countries at the intersection of two competing geopolitical spheres: the West, led by the IMF and its conditional aid programs, and China, with its vast financial resources and infrastructure-driven foreign policy.

Both actors are seeking influence in a region that is of increasing strategic importance, not only because of its economic potential but also due to its geopolitical position in the broader Indo-Pacific and beyond.

This dual pressure—from both external creditors and internal political instability—raises critical questions about the future stability of South Asia.

Will these countries be able to navigate their financial crises without further political destabilization?

Can they find a way to break the cycle of debt dependence and achieve sustainable growth, or will they continue to be caught in the vice grip of external and internal forces?

As Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan struggle to stabilize, the broader implications for the Global South are becoming more apparent.

These countries’ crises serve as a cautionary tale for others in the region: the complex interplay of economic mismanagement, political turmoil, and external debt dependence can create a perfect storm of instability.

The outcomes of these crises will have lasting repercussions not only for the political future of these nations but also for the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and the Global South as a whole.

The writer is an Editor and Publisher of www.thechtnews.com