Bangladesh’s security landscape shifts as al-Qaida seeks a foothold

Sanjoy Kumar Barua

For years, Bangladesh had kept jihadist militancy largely under control, dismantling networks and weakening the groups that once carried out some of the country’s worst attacks.

Now, the threat is once again coming into sharper focus.

Explosives have been recovered around Dhaka, a suspected militant hideout has been uncovered in Savar, senior militants remain at large following the upheaval of 2024, and a new UN assessment has warned that al-Qaida is seeking to establish a foothold in Bangladesh.

The latest investigation began in the industrial outskirts of Dhaka.

On August 11 and 12, Bangladesh’s Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime unit, or CTTC, carried out operations in Savar after police arrested a man they identified as Mohammad Arif, also known as Imran.

Police said five pipe bombs were recovered from a bag carried by Arif and that further searches uncovered additional explosives and bomb-making materials.

A subsequent case under Bangladesh’s Anti-Terrorism Act named six alleged members of the banned JMB, with several other suspects unidentified or at large.

Authorities said the materials included chemicals and equipment associated with bomb production.

Arif was later remanded in custody for questioning, with investigators seeking information about alleged associates, financiers and people believed to have directed the network.

The investigation has also brought attention to Nazmul Hasan Mamun, known as “Bomaru Mamun”, whom police allege is associated with Neo-JMB.

Police have reported a succession of explosive incidents in and around Dhaka in recent weeks.

In Savar, authorities also recovered a pressure-cooker bomb-like device that was subsequently neutralised by bomb-disposal specialists.

Local reporting said as many as 16 bombs had been recovered in separate incidents around Savar and Ashulia over a period of roughly 12 days.

The concentration of incidents has increased scrutiny of whether remnants of Bangladesh’s once-powerful militant organisations are attempting to rebuild.

The United Nations Security Council monitoring report published in August said al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent, or AQIS, was seeking to leverage Bangladesh’s changing political and security landscape to establish new cells.

It also referred to logistical and financial networks associated with the organisation.

The warning has renewed attention on a militant organisation whose Bangladeshi affiliates were responsible for some of the country’s most targeted extremist violence.

Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed rejected the UN assessment, saying it appeared to be based on assumptions rather than concrete evidence.

“As far as I understand from reports published in the newspapers, they have assumed that something like this could happen. We cannot take action on the basis of assumptions,” he said.

The collapse of Hasina’s government was followed by a violent breakdown of law and order, with Islamist hardliners attacking police and other state institutions.

Fifteen police officers were brutally killed at Enayetpur Police Station in Sirajganj, one of the most deadly attacks on law enforcement during the unrest.

Bangladesh’s inspector general of prisons, Brigadier General Syed Mohammad Motaher Hossain, has said that 2,240 prisoners escaped from different prisons during the unrest.

About 690 remained unaccounted for, according to figures cited by prison authorities.

Narsingdi District Jail suffered particularly severe damage.

The prison was attacked and set ablaze amid the unrest, with hardliners and suspected militants among those involved, destroying its server, database and other crucial records.

Authorities said they could not establish the identities of 166 prisoners who escaped from Narsingdi because records were destroyed.

Among the prisoners who escaped from different facilities were people accused in militant cases.

Prison authorities identified nine such prisoners.
Six have since been arrested.Three remain missing.

The figures have sometimes been reported differently because authorities are working with damaged records and different categories of prisoners, including people convicted of militant offences and people merely facing allegations.

According to prison and court records, 338 people detained in cases involving alleged militant links have secured bail since 5 August 2024, during the tenure of the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.

During a visit to the US, Yunus disclosed Mahfuz Alam, his special assistant at the time, as the “mastermind” behind the upheaval.

Mohammad Shamsul Haque, head of CTTC and an additional commissioner of Dhaka Metropolitan Police, told journalist that authorities were monitoring militant activity and people released on bail.

The challenge is particularly acute in cases involving underground organisations, where investigators may have limited information about contacts and movements once a suspect leaves detention.

One case cited by Bangladeshi investigators involves Ikramul Haque, whom police have identified as being linked to AQIS.

Haque was arrested in Dhaka in 2023.

Police said he had entered Bangladesh illegally and had been involved in AQIS’s religious outreach and online activities.

He was released on bail in October 2024.

The country’s security agencies have extensive experience confronting jihadist organisations.
Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh, or JMB, emerged as one of the country’s most important militant groups in the early 2000s.

On August 17, 2005, coordinated bomb explosions struck 63 of Bangladesh’s 64 districts.

The attacks demonstrated an organisational reach that shocked the country.

The government responded with a major crackdown.
JMB leaders Abdur Rahman and Siddiqul Islam, known as Bangla Bhai, were eventually arrested and executed in 2007.

The organisation’s operational capacity was substantially reduced.

But its ideology did not disappear.

A later generation emerged through Neo-JMB, which developed links to Islamic State.

That network carried out Bangladesh’s deadliest modern militant attack.

On July 1, 2016, gunmen stormed the Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka’s diplomatic quarter.

Twenty-two people were killed, including 17 foreigners and two police officers.

The attack transformed Bangladesh’s counterterrorism strategy.

Security forces launched sustained operations against militant safe houses and recruitment networks.

Senior operatives were killed or arrested.

Neo-JMB’s operational capability subsequently declined.

The al-Qaida-linked threat is different
AQIS-linked militants have historically pursued a different strategy.

Their Bangladeshi affiliates were associated with targeted attacks against secular writers, bloggers, publishers and academics.

Writer Avijit Roy was murdered in Dhaka in 2015.
Publisher Faisal Arefin Dipan was killed later that year.

The attacks were designed around individual targets rather than the large-scale assault seen at Holey Artisan.

Following Hasina’s removal in 2024, AQIS leader Usama Mahmood issued a statement aimed at Bangladesh’s religious community.

The message emphasised da’wah, or religious preaching, and called for building the capacity for resistance.

The strategy described in the statement was long-term rather than an immediate call for a conventional insurgency.

Another figure attracting attention is Mahmudul Hasan Gunobi.

Bangladeshi authorities arrested Gunobi in 2021 over an alleged plot targeting parliament.

He was acquitted in 2024.

Since his release, he has built a substantial online following.

The Jamestown Foundation has described him as an increasingly prominent figure associated with Bangladesh’s al-Qaida-linked militant environment and reported more than 168,000 Facebook followers.

Gunobi has spoken about global jihad and the caliphate and expressed support for Taliban-style rule in Bangladesh.

Afghanistan has also become part of the regional security calculation since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

AQIS has maintained a presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Bangladeshi Islamist political figures have developed contacts with Taliban officials.

Mamunul Haque, leader of Bangladesh Khelafat Majlish, travelled to Kabul in 2025 with a delegation following an invitation from Taliban authorities.

An Afghan journalist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Mamunul Haque and members of his Bangladeshi delegation met with senior militant figures during their visit.

Later that year, a senior Afghan foreign-ministry official visited Bangladesh and met Haque and other Islamist figures.

In March 2025, supporters of the banned Hizb ut-Tahrir staged a procession in Dhaka after Friday prayers, carrying the organisation’s banners and demanding the establishment of a caliphate.

Another episode drew attention to the appearance of Kalema-bearing flags resembling symbols used in Islamic State and al-Qaida propaganda during the FIFA World Cup frenzy in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh once dismantled the networks behind the 2005 bombings and 2016 Holey Artisan attack.

Renewed extremist activity, missing top militants, recovered explosives and the threat of radicalisation now mark a new phase in the country’s security landscape, raising concerns over secular freedoms.